Finance, marketing, sales, operations and advertising are all areas where the business community constantly crunches numbers in an attempt to isolate the best decisions for their organization.

The world of sports is no different.

Billy Beane’s use of data is baseball was chronicled in Michael Lewis’ book; Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game and the film version earned Oscar nominations for both Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill.

Every spring, when the 32 teams that make up the NFL hold their draft of college players, the amount of data that they compile on the pool of eligible draftees is enormous.

They have statistics from NCAA careers, physical attribute percentiles, NFL combine results which include Wonderlic scores and all these factors are taken into account before teams go on the clock to make their selections.

So why are there still draft busts?

There’s no simple answer.

Statistical analysis always includes a margin or error. You’re dealing with kids. Football is a career in which you are always one play away from retirement. Many factors go into assessing a team’s annual draft and even that can’t be fairly appraised until a few seasons down the road.

Working with data is hard.

When we crunch the numbers on all the data compiled each week, from every NCAA and NFL game that is played for our “Six Bets A Game” program, the workload is substantial. It takes days rather than hours and at least eight spread sheets to gather the information needed to isolate trends that we realize, on a good day, are going to be wrong as much as a third of the time.

A sports team’s use of data can only be as effective as the individuals capturing and entering the data. We all should be familiar with the term “garbage in, garbage out”. Those responsible for analyzing the information also hold responsibility for an organization’s success or failure. That’s of course why they make the “big bucks”.

However, whether it’s a team’s drafting success or the ability to isolate wagering opportunities for the 1st Half 2nd Half or Game, we’d probably all agree that if you can be right seven out of ten times everything will be OK.

It’s all about the data.

For Chicago, it all starts with the defense. They play a cover 2 defense (tampa 2) and stay true to it. They Don’t do anything fancy. The Bears pass rush relies on its front four Israel Idonije, Tommie Harris, Anthony Adams, and the heart and soul of the front four, Julius Peppers. They jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage, and drop their linebackers into coverage. Brain Urlacher and Lance Briggs, two very big variables to this defense. They both had sideline to sideline speed and are able to make the big play.

We cannot escape that the Bears have one of the best special teams unit in the NFL. This will be a huge factor in this weekend’s game. Devin Hester has the speed and agility to take any kick or punt to the house, but it starts with their coverage unit. Back in the Bears and Packers first meeting this season, the special teams unit supplied a punt return for a touchdown and blocked field goal by Julius Peppers. Not to mention a game winning field goal off the golden leg of Bears kicker Robbie Gould.

On offense they key has been giving Jay Cutler time in the pocket, and utilizing the run game successfully. The play of Jay Cutler has been huge since the bye-week, buying time with his mobility and making plays outside of the pocket. This young receivers unit has been quickly on the rise to a solid unit. Earl Bennet, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and tight end Greg Olsen, have turned into reliable targets for Cutler. The key to this offenses success has been the balance between the run and the pass, and the same personnel on the offensive line.

Here are the keys to beating the Packers this weekend. On defense, applying pressure on quarterback Arron Rodgers while keeping containment on him. Rodgers is as good as anyone when he’s outside the pocket, so jamming the receivers at the line is going to be important. Stopping the run game is going to limit Rodgers from the play action pass, so they’ll need to use some stunts with their front four and play from Urlacher and Briggs, two of the best run stoppers on that defense. On offense, protecting Cutler is going to be a must. The offensive line needs to give him time in the pocket for the play to develop, Cutler is going to have to use his mobility to buy time. Generating a run game is also key, they were successful with this during their last match up, this will open up the play action pass. The receivers have to play lights out, and be reliable targets for Cutler to get the ball to. They’ll need to capitalize on good field position and turnovers. The special teams unit is going to have generate at least two big plays.

Lets take a look at Green Bays success. This season has been a roller coaster for the Packers, with their significant number of injuries, including one season ending injury to their starting running back Ryan Grant in the first game, and not to mention their stint this season where they lost two back to back games in overtime. They relied on Packers quarter back Arron Rodgers for answers, and answers they got, as he threw for 3,922 yards this season with 28 touchdowns. Receivers Greg Jennings and James Jones have caught for a combined total of 1,944 yards, Jennings doing most of the damage with 1,265 yards and 12 touchdown. The running game has been idle through out the season as back up running back Brandon Jackson carried the ball 190 times for 703 yards with three touchdowns. Rodgers rushed for 356 yards off of 64 attempts while scoring four touchdowns. I think it says something when your quarterback has more rushing touchdowns then your running back, and almost half the rushing yards on less then half of the carries.

This Packers defense has evolved into one of the top defenses in the league. Ranked 2nd in points with 15.0 average, 5th in passing yards with 192.2 yards per game, 5th in yards total with 309.1 yards per game, and 18th in rushing 114.9 yards per game. Not to mention this stingy the defense has shut down two of the best offenses in the playoffs, Philadelphia and Atlanta. This defense is led by linebacker Clay Matthews, and cornerback Charles Woodson. Matthews has 3 sacks in the playoffs so far, but the real jewel here is the play of cornerback Tramon Williams, who recorded 3 interceptions in the playoffs thus far.

Lets talk about the keys to beating the Chicago Bears. If your going to beat this team, you have to make them beat their selves. Their defense is going to have to get to Jay Cutler early, the more hits you get on him, the more he gets uncomfortable and the more his timing gets thrown off, thus producing bad throws. Stopping the running game by pinching the A and B gaps as well as keeping containment on the outsides. If you shut down the run game, you have now made the Bears one dimensional, meaning that Bears offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, is going throw the ball a lot more than he would like. Throwing off the Bears balanced offensive attack is key. Corners Williams and Woodson will need to take advantage of these one on one match ups and break on the ball while its in the air.

On offense, its going to be about protecting Rodgers from the Bears monster front four, and setting up the run game. Starkks is going to have to be a huge factor in this game. They cannot beat the Bears alone on just passing, they will need a steady mix of both. Rodgers will be going up against one of the best defenses in the league right now, so accuracy and timing is going to be very critical. He will need to pick up the blitzes early and hit his hot routes for short but decent gains. The Bears play a cover 2 defense, Rodgers needs to exploit the middle of the field, such as the Patriots did. Cover 2 beaters are in the seams, and short routes underneath. Setting up play action pass is a must, this is where 35 percent of their plays come from. With no play-action passing game, means no chances to catch the safeties out of position for the deep ball.  Beating the Bears is all going to come to do; 1. Stopping the running game. 2. Getting to Jay Cutler. 3. Setting up the running game.

Prediction:

I’m going to go with Chicago in this heavy weight fight, and here’s why. The Chicago Bears have found that balance in their offense, Cutler and Martz are syncing together perfectly. Matt Forte and  Chester Taylor have carried the load well on the ground attack, and will continue this Sunday as they’ll run to slow down this Packers rush. Greg Olsen and Earl Bennet are going to be huge factors, both are hot route receivers for Jay Cutler. I believe the defense comes out and shuts down this soaring Packers offense the same way they shut down a soaring Philadelphia Eagles offense earlier this season. Special teams is going to be the deciding factor, as one or two plays will be a momentum changer in the Bears favor. The Bears are extremely talented at all 3 phases. One things for sure this is going to be a game that will be talked about for years and years to come. My prediction, Chicago wins 24-21 and advances to the Super Bowl.

Saints 36 Seattle 41

To some, this game was the biggest upset in post-season NFL history. The Saints rolled into Seattle banged up, heavily at the running back position. It was a crucial part of the saints offense, and it was idle from this game. Seattle got their “golden-boy” quarterback back under center Saturday, and it couldn’t have come at any better time. Matt Hasselbeck passed 272 yards with 4 touchdown passes while completing 22 of 34 passes. Although Hasselbecks performance wasn’t the biggest highlight, RB Lynch took that one, as he galloped to an amazing (and that’s an understatement) 67 yard touchdown run. He broke at least a half a dozen tacklers on that play. Drew Brees passed for 404 yards with only 2 touchdown passes, he completed 39 of 60 passes. 60 passes ? Yes 60 passes, which is why they lost. They only ran the ball 20 times, for 71 yards, although they generated two rushing touchdowns. They lacked the continuity, the balance. Seattle ran the ball 23 times for 151 generating 1 touchdown, but they had balance, they passed the ball only 35 times.

Eagles 16 Packers 21

Rodgers came up big today as he finally won a playoff game, the Packers QB threw for 180 yards and 3 touchdown passes, completing 18 of 27. The rushing game was spot on today as rookie running back Starks rushed for 123 yards in 23 carries. No interceptions today, but Aron did put the ball on the ground, which lead to a Eagles touchdown drive. Mike Vick threw for 292 yards with 1 touchdown pass, completing 20 out of 36. But the running game never really left the ground as they only rushed for 82 yards combined. Again the ability to run the ball was the difference maker in this one, that and Vick’s interception in the endzone at the end of the game.

Colts 15  Jets 16

This epic rematch of last years AFC Championship earns this week game of the week. This was a game of who ever had the ball last, would win the game. Mark Sanchez threw for 189 yards with 1 interception, completing 18 of 31. The Jets rushed for a combined total of 189 yards generating 2 touchdowns led by Tomlinson (82 yds), and Greene (70 yds). The Jet’s ability to run the ball, worked out perfectly, but Sanchez’s last drive was key as he drove his team down the field for the game’s winning field goal. Payton Manning threw for 225 yards and 1 touchdown pass, completing 18 of 26. The Colts rushed the ball 27 times for only 93 yards. The Colts had balance on offense, they just couldn’t get any thing out of it. It just came down to who had the ball last, the Jets answered right back after Manning led his team to a score.

Chiefs 7  Ravens 30

Joe Flaco got it done through the air today, throwing for 265 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. He completed 25 of 34 passes and no interceptions. Running back’s Ray Rice and Willis McGahee rushed for a combined total of 101 yards and 1 touchdown. The Ravens defense came up big, generating 3 turnovers. Matt Cassel threw for only 80 yards completing 9 out of 18 passes. Ouch, that’s less than I was throwing in middle school, I threw for an average 134 yards back then. The Chiefs rushed for 91 yards and one touchdown, led by running back Charles who rushed for 82 of those. The Chief’s beat them selves in this one, the turnovers really hurt.

Divisional Playoff’s

NFC

(11-6) Greenbay @ (12-4) Atlanta     PREDICTION: Greenbay wins 23-20

(8-9) Seattle @ (11-5) Chicago            PREDICTION: Chicago wins 38-17

AFC

(11-5) Jets @ (14-2) Patriots                 PREDICTION: Jets win 37-34

(12-4) Ravens @ (12-4) Steelers        PREDICTION: Steelers win 17-13

Favre may be down, but he's not out.

While initial reports stated Minnesota Vikings star quarterback Brett Favre had two “fractures” in his surgically repaired ankle, further information (or opinion), suggest the injury may not be as bad as first imagined.

Sports Illustrated’s Peter King no longer believes Favre’s ankle injury will keep him from facing the New England Patriots in week 8, after speaking with a top NFL orthopedist.

Honestly, neither do I.

But it’s not just because Favre’s fractures arguably equate to something more closer to a bad ankle sprain, but because it’s simply not in Favre’s demeanor, or Minnesota’s best interest, for Favre to sit out.

Make no mistake, Brett Favre isn’t on top of his game. He has three more interceptions right now (10) than he had in all of the 2009 regular season, and his team already has the same amount of losses (4) that it had in all of last year’s regular season. It’s bad, but it’s not a hole Favre and the Vikings can’t crawl out of. That is, as long as Favre can effectively start and begin producing against a young and active Patriots defense this week.

For all the writers and reporters who are already writing Favre off, I’ll say this: Favre is at his best when his back is against the wall. He has just one season below 8-8 in his entire career, and when it happened, he was without star players on offense. Seriously, Samkon friggin’ Gado was his starting running back, as he and his then Green Bay Packers finished 4-12.

But Favre has support. He has Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe in the passing game, and he also has an absolute stud in the running game with Adrian Peterson.

The real issue? There has been too much pressure on Favre, and he’s been battling the pressure, tough opponents, and off-field distractions. And on top of that, at least until Moss came into the picture, Favre had nothing to work with in the first three weeks of the 2010 season.

That has all changed, and while the Vikings have dropped four of their first six, one look at the production shows that small strides have been made, despite Favre-haters’ willingness to admit it.

In the first two losses to the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins, the Vikings mustered a combined 19 points. Since then, Minnesota has gone 2-2, while scoring at least 20 points in every game.

Most importantly, Favre has had the Vikings in every single game, as the Vikings haven’t lost a game yet by more than 9 points. And that’s the rusty Favre with no weapons (for the first three weeks), facing tough defenses, while fielding off-field allegations.

Just think what starts happening once the chemistry is 100% there with Favre and his offense, when the schedule starts easing up a bit after the Patriots game, and when the off-field allegations situation gets worked out. No, it’s currently not the prettiest of pictures, and there’s a long way before this season ends (or almost ends) on another magical note, but it’s headed in the right direction.

The question is, Favre and Vikings fans; do you believe it?

When asked if he would announce Roethlisberger’s suspension Monday or Tursday, Goodell did not give a decisive answer, saying, “There may be plenty of reports. I make the decision when I’m prepared to do so”.

Goodell was also asked if there was a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy by Roethlisberger, to which Goodell responded, “Yes, there has been a violation of that. The issue is respect to a pattern of behavior [and] bad judgments”.

Goodell stated that he still needed more time to review all the facts before he could come to a conclusion on Roethlisberger’s punishment. Stay tuned.

The truth remains, though, that the league’s owners and players are still marching towards a potential lockout at the end of the 2010 season.

On Monday, the NFL Players Association won in an arbitration against the collective NFL owners under Special Master Stephen Burbank.

The decision prevented the owners from dismantling the supplemental revenue sharing pool (SRS) in 2010, as planned. The pool, valued at $220 million, all but solidifies that 2010 will be an uncapped year with no limitations on team spending.

The league and the NFLPA are currently in a race to establish their positions in the wake of the disassembling of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that was established in 2006 between the two parties. The agreement states that any changes to the SRS must be approved by the union, something the NFLPA isn’t willing to do.

“We find no explicit distinction between capped and uncapped years or between capped years in The Final League Year”, Burbank wrote. Without a distinction between the two seasons, the league’s hands remain tied.

This is a clear victory for both the players and the NFLPA, but it only serves as a precursor for what is to come, a lockout in the 2011 season.

If the league and its players don’t reach a new CBA by March 5, the end of the 2010 season could spell serious trouble for the NFL.

This black cloud over the league has stemmed from the agreement made in 2006 that caused the salary cap to significantly increase from $80 million in 2005 to $102 million the following year. In 2009, the cap had risen all the way to $128 million.

Due to the incurring economic strain on the league, the owners have slowly watched their profit margins shrink and are now demanding a lower percentage of profit sharing and a limit on salary engagements to young, unproven players.

The league truly flexed their industry muscles when they hired outside source Bob Batterman, a giant in mega-corporate council representation. Batterman belongs to Proskauer Rose, a law firm that oversees all four of the major sports leagues in the US.

Batterman’s focus is on the NFL and the NHL. His involvement with the league comes as an omen for what may come, perhaps a repeat of the NHL’s lockout during the 2004-05 season, a move that Batterman himself oversaw.

As a quick note, a lockout occurs when management (the league) attempts to prevent its players from operating under current conditions, usually unfavorable to the party performing the lockout.

If and when the players decide that those conditions are grievous, they can then opt to go on strike, an act that will certainly plummet the league and its players into a deeper struggle over revenue sharing and salary conditions.

If no agreement is reached before March 5, we can be almost certain that we, the fans, may very well have to do without a 2011 season or, at least, do without the players we love and know so well.

But all of this is pure speculation, nothing more than a look at the possibilities at their gravest. For now, all we can do is enjoy the NFL’s greatest week of football and marvel at two of the league’s best quarterbacks duking it out on the greatest stage in television.

As for the league itself, circle March 5 on your calendar and hope for the best, friends.

For more information on the end of the CBA and it’s effects on the 2010 offseason, click here.

His hiring came after former quarterback coach Hue Jackson left to join the Oakland Raiders as their new offensive coordinator.

Zorn is coming off an embarrassing two-year tenure as the head coach for Washington where he led the ‘Skins to their worst record in fifteen years at 12-20. His team came close to victory time and again, but was never able to overcome the mistakes of an inane owner and a rookie head coach.

Owner Daniel Snyder promoted Zorn from offensive coordinator to head coach before the season ever began; the team’s first mistake.

The organization then expected success from a team built around an aging, overpaid defense, an offensive line whose experience stemmed from Arena football, and a quarterback who has been asked to learn a different offensive scheme nearly every year.

This was Jim Zorn’s bed and he slept in it week after week with a face of humility and a cool sense of propriety.

Before he entered the Redskins’ organization, Zorn was considered a successful quarterback coach. His influence in Seattle during their brighter years was evident behind Matt Hasselbeck’s arm.

Now, Zorn joins a team on the brink of championship-caliber potential. Normally noted for its veteran leadership on defense and a do-everything running back in Ray Rice, Zorn now has the opportunity to coach one of the NFL‘s hopeful youths, Joe Flacco.

Flacco has spurred his team to the playoffs twice in his two years as a pro and he’s done it with pure athletic ability and class. As his new coach, Zorn will only further Flacco’s potential and open up the Ravens’ playbook to new standards.

Not the numbers you want to hear when you’re thinking of a rising team’s number two receiver.

Donald Driver has recently said that he’d like to keep playing in the NFL until he’s at least 40. While that’s a fine goal, it’s growing less and less likely that he will be able to retire as a Packer, if he does in fact continue aiming for this goal.

And what a lofty goal it is.

Only 51 players in NFL history have played to (or past) 40 years of age, and only one has been a wide receiver: Jerry Rice.

That’s some interesting company Driver is fancying himself in.

Sure, he helped get the Philadelphia Eagles back to the playoffs, yet again, but yet again, the season ended without a Super Bowl, and inevitably, in disappointment.

While it’s impossible to put all (or even most) of the blame on McNabb, rumors have been swirling all around Philadelphia lately, and for McNabb, they’re not good.

A Philadelphia radio station has reported that young Eagles players have been seeking out advice to back-up Kevin Kolb, and not starter Donovan McNabb. This has apparently been going on for much of the regular season, and led up into the post-season.

But this isn’t the beginning.

Ever since Kolb delivered two remarkable back-to-back performances while subbing in for an injured McNabb, he’s garnered the respect of his teammates as a confident signal caller and a strong leader.

McNabb, on the other hand, has other’s confidence in him wavering.

Again, this is all speculation off of reports from no-named talk-show hosts and aspiring NFL experts, but with everything that has happened, a divorce between McNabb and the Eagles would only make sense.

While Michael Vick has been open about finding a new home (because he knows Philly isn’t a permanent gig), perhaps McNabb should begin his own search.

Actually, it’s sounding more and more like Philly will be glad to do it for him.

McNabb is entering the final year of his contract with Philadelphia, one in which he is due $6.2 million in an offseason roster bonus on May 5th.

Considering how well Kolb has fared and how well he has grasped the offense, it’s fairly likely the Eagles will already start taking offers, and will try to move McNabb before or during this April’s NFL Draft.

And for all you Eagles fans that just can’t believe the hype, take a good, hard look at the plan at hand before you scream “mutiny!” at the top of your lungs:

McNabb is 33, due a ton of money, and simply isn’t getting it done. It’s arguable that anyone with a decent amount of ability and a grasp of Philly’s offense could take a roster full of explosive weapons to the playoffs.

Like, say, Kevin Kolb?

If the Eagles firmly believe he can (and they do), then the next step is unloading their dead weight (McNabb and Vick), by getting what they can to build for an even brighter future.

Vick can probably be had for a 5th rounder, although Philly will likely entertain offers until the bitter end, in hopes they can drag a 4th rounder out of a desperate team (we’re thinking Rams).

McNabb, on the other hand, could be worth a first day selection (or two), or even a pick and a quality player. McNabb is still in his prime and is still playing elite football, for the most part, and there are plenty of teams that are a good quarterback away from making a serious run.

On that same note, there are several teams with young, talented rosters that could use a savvy, veteran quarterback to pull them together and push for a playoff spot.

Wherever McNabb winds up, we’re undoubtedly going to be hearing about this deep into the summer, and probably again next season, unless McNabb signs a long-term contract right away with his next team.

But the point is, if you can get some picks for a guy that simply isn’t in your plans anymore, then why not?

After all, it’s what Green Bay did, and look at where they are now? They hit a rough patch in their first season with Aaron Rodgers as the starter, but were back in the playoffs the following year.

Both Brett Favre and Rodgers are now enjoying their role with their current teams, and a similar future isn’t unrealistic for both Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb.

However, unlike the Packers situation following the 2007 season, McNabb hasn’t even breathed a word of retirement. And unlike the 2007 Packers team, who were on the rise and made it to the NFC Championship game, McNabb’s Eagles aren’t coming off of a season that is necessarily deemed as successful.

Either way you look at it, McNabb’s days as Philly’s golden boy are long gone. And it’s just a matter of time before it’s official.

For more NFL news and articles, go here.

Gaines was rushed to the emergency room in the early hours of morning and, while the cause of death or concern is still unknown, the coroner has divulged that Gaines appeared perfectly healthy before his death was pronounced. An autopsy is scheduled for later today.

It seems 26 is the unlucky number right now in the NFL. This story strikes a chord as it follows the death of Cincinnati’s wide receiver Chris Henry no more than a month ago, also at the tender age of 26.

The league and it’s fans alike were only just healing from Henry’s tragic loss and are now faced with another to overcome.

Gaines, a former Clemson University star, was drafted with the fourth overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2007 draft. He was traded to the Bears in October of last year for a second round pick in April.

He appeared in 15 games with the Bears last season and recorded one sack, two forced fumbles, and three safeties.

During the 2007 draft, in a time when character was on the chopping block, players like Adam “Pacman” Jones and Florida’s Marcus Thomas were only projecting the attitude that had cast such a flawed shadow over the league.

Adams was one of the few players who countered that image and showed that good character was not something of a rare nature in the NFL. Although later he and a few others at the combine admitted to using marijuana, it didn’t stain or reflect in his personality.

He continued to be a positive influence in the locker room and appeared to be headed in the right direction by adding himself to an already budding Bears defense.