Fantasy Football: 15 Players to Draft With Confidence

After going through the top 50 players in the league who provide good potential but give you reason to worry, I decided to put together a smaller list of guys that you shouldn’t think twice about drafting.
Drew Brees (pictured) doesn’t even have to be on the list. But a better example there is not.
Outside of a freak, Tom Brady-like injury, Brees should easily top 4,500 yards again and could flirt with 30 scores for the second straight year.
He is clearly what makes that potent offense go, and with a healthy arsenal of weapons all around him, there’s no reason to doubt him or the Saints in 2009.
But Brees is just the first of many players you shouldn’t second-guess.
However, sometimes when you’re drafting, those “guarantees” will fly off the board, and you’re left with too many decisions and not enough real answers.
Read on to see if the players you’re targeting in your draft are “sure things.”
(List is in no particular order.)
1. Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots
This isn’t Oakland or Minnesota.
Randy Moss is playing dominant football, and he’s doing it with a smile.
Even without his stud quarterback, Tom Brady, he had a solid 2008, with over 1,000 yards and 10 scores.
He may not get back to 23 touchdowns, but with Brady and that offense gearing for a potential return to 2007 form, he’s as safe a bet as any star receiver.
Prediction: 84 rec, 1,390 yards, 15 TD
2. Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
Much like Moss, Welker benefits from a great New England system, as well as the return of 2007′s NFL MVP, Tom Brady.
Again, like Moss, the most beautiful part about this receiver is that even without his star quarterback, his production really didn’t drop off too much.
Mark him down for two straight seasons with at least 111 catches and 1,100 yards.
I’d bet on a third.
Prediction: 115 rec, 1,224 yards, 7 TD
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Manning won’t miss Marvin Harrison as much as many think.
Harrison has been on a downward slide for two seasons now, and Manning has been able to build great chemistry with his No. 1 guy, Reggie Wayne, as well as Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez.
Gonzalez gives the Colts the speed Harrison “used” to have, as well as reliable hands and good route-running.
With offensive coordinator Tom Moore back under contract, you can safely assume Manning should be in line for his usual 26-plus touchdowns and 4,000-plus yards.
You can talk about age (33) and last year’s knee surgery all you want, but the guy has never tossed fewer than 26 touchdowns and has passed for less than 4,000 yards just twice in his entire career.
Oh, and he was the league’s MVP last year. Yeah, he’s still got it.
Prediction: 4,177 yards, 30 TD, 14 INT
4. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
t’s as simple as this: If you’re even remotely sold on Manning continuing his dominance (he will), then Wayne is your second man in line.
He’s basically been Manning’s go-to guy for the past two years, anyways (sorry Marvin).
The guy is just entering his prime at 30 years old and is only one season removed from a sickening 104-catch, 1,500-yard season.
Expect a return to his 2007 form, or very close to it.
Prediction: 97 rec, 1,388 yards, 11 TD
5. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
Sure, Gates’ receptions have gone from 89 to 71 to 75, and then all the way down to 60 last year.
But he hasn’t scored fewer than eight touchdowns since his rookie year.
Yeah, that’s five straight years of being the league’s best tight end.
However, his bum toe has taken him out of his title spot (you’re welcome, Jason Witten), and now he mostly settles for touchdowns as the Chargers’ third receiving option.
Gates should be close to full health in 2009, though, which should mean fewer plays as a decoy and anywhere from 15 to 30 more grabs.
If all else fails, you have his insane touchdown production to fall back on.
Prediction: 80 rec, 985 yards, 12 TD
6. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
Like his teammate Gates, Tomlinson played through nagging injuries in 2008 that slowed him down and kept him from being his usual electrifying self.
L.T. put up solid numbers (1,110 yards and 11 TD) in what experts called a “down” year.
That may be true, but only because L.T. has shown us for so many years what he is capable of.
The franchising of Darren Sproles means that L.T.’s production is very unlikely to get back anywhere close to his majestic 2006 season, and possibly not even his elite 2007 production.
However, he’s still in his prime, and if he can do damage with all the injuries he had last year, he definitely has another year or two of quality production.
He may not be a surefire No. 1-4 pick, but he’s still a first-rounder.
Prediction: 1,390 yards, 12 TD, 55 rec, 477 yards, 3 TD
7. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
Too much focus has been put on Portis’s late-season slump in 2008, where he failed to rush for a touchdown over a seven-game span and finished the season with less than 80 rushing yards in five straight contests.
His yards per carry was pretty pitiful down the stretch, too.
But here’s where common sense comes to the rescue.
The entire offense was pathetic during the last eight games, and a lot of that had to do with Jason Campbell’s lack of a killer instinct and Jim Zorn’s offense becoming too predictable.
Portis should be good for another hot start as the offense continues to grow and the other young weapons around him mature.
Be aware of the possibility of another late-season collapse, but at just 27, that’s a bit of a reach.
Prediction: 1,466 yards, 10 TD, 35 rec, 349 yards, 2 TD
8. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
While everyone else is reaching for Donald Driver or Jerricho Cotchery as their WR3, you can smile with confidence as you snag Witten as YOUR third receiving option.
With Terrell Owens gone, Witten is more like a receiver than ever, and he should keep his reception and yardage total high while he gets back to the six- or seven-touchdown range.
He’s too big, fast, and strong to be kept out of the end zone for long without pay dirt hog T.O. gone.
Prediction: 94 rec, 1,117 yards, 8 TD
9. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Duh.
As if you weren’t expecting Mr. “All-Day” to show up on this list sooner or later.
Sure, he fumbles, plays recklessly, and is in an increasingly more competitive division (on paper) by the day.
But when the guy can run over AND around just about anybody he wants to, it’s pretty hard to doubt his abilities.
His play could catch up with him eventually, but if Brett Favre signs, something tells me it won’t be happening in 2009.
With a true presence (albeit a 40-year-old one) behind center, Peterson will finally shine to his fullest.
Just an interesting note:
Jets RB Thomas Jones’ 2007 TD total (before Favre arrived: ONE
Jones’ total with Favre at QB in 2008: 13
A.P. scored 10 times last year while leading the league in rushing with over 1,700 yards.
Oh, the possibilities.
Prediction: 1,669 yards, 17 TD, 27 rec, 288 yards, 2 TD
10. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
The entire 2008 season was about taking the place of a legend and making his own mark in Green Bay.
Aaron Rodgers did both. The only problem was, his defense didn’t back him up at all.
With a new scheme and players in new spots in some areas, Rodgers will hopefully have a serviceable defense defending the other end zone.
In the meantime, Rodgers still has a hell of a right arm, is mobile, and has a slew of offensive weapons who are just as productive as he is.
With over 4,000 yards passing and 31 total touchdowns in his first year as a starter, it’s safe to say he’s arrived.
Now just cross your fingers he makes it through 16 games—again.
Prediction: 3,988 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT
11. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers
Smith is being held back by an ineffective quarterback and average receivers surrounding him, yet is still an elite fantasy option.
And a consistent and reliable one to boot.
Despite Jake Delhomme’s poor play at times, Smith is still arguably a top-five option and is entering his prime.
He still has game-breaking speed, excellent hands, and body control, and he makes plays on every ball thrown his way.
Don’t let Delhomme scare you away from four straight 1,000-yard seasons.
Prediction: 85 rec, 1,369 yards, 9 TD
12. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
White is officially “the” guy in Atlanta’s passing game, and even the arrival of Tony Gonzalez shouldn’t change that.
His chemistry with Matt Ryan is outstanding and should only improve, while two straight seasons of 1,200-plus yards and at least six scores should keep you salivating.
He’s also grabbed over 83 balls in each of the past two seasons.
He’s only 27 and is just going to get better.
Prediction: 90 rec, 1,444 yards, 10 TD
13. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Forget about his ridiculous 2008 postseason run.
Tons of players go “off” in the playoffs and then fizzle out the next season.
Fitz, however, has been doing this for years.
Draft him based on the three 1,400-yard and 10-plus touchdown seasons out of his last four tries.
The guy has size, speed, reliable hands, excellent body control, and a Pro Bowl quarterback.
Just knock on wood when thinking about him being on the Madden cover.
Prediction: 101 rec, 1,515 yards, 15 TD
14. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
What are you waiting for, Warner to grow a long, white beard, fall and break his hip, or retire unexpectedly?
Don’t wait on it.
Warner may be 38, but he isn’t playing with the body of the usual late-30s quarterback. He still has a good arm and is sickly accurate.
Oh, and he has two of the game’s best receiving options (Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin), as well as underrated third and fourth options.
Sure, he could always shatter like glass, but then again, so could anyone else in this league.
If you’re really that worried, grab Matt Leinart later in the draft as insurance.
Prediction: 4,377 yards, 29 TD, 15 INT
15. Steve Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams VS. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Both Steven Jackson and Frank Gore are elusive backs with exceptional speed, inside running ability, and vision.
The trouble is, they can’t stay completely healthy, and the rest of their offense stinks.
Neither has a reliable quarterback or passing game, and both of their defenses still could use some work.
However, the tide is turning.
Despite all of these things working against them, both backs have churned out back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns and have tons of room for fantasy optimism.
Jackson has a new coach with an emphasis on defense and running the ball.
Ding, ding, ding! We’ve got a winner.
You can say much the same for Gore as well.
His quarterback situation may not be resolved completely in 2009, but his carries should increase, as the Mike Martz system kept him well below 300 carries.
Both backs should see the ball at least 18 to 25 times a game and are still the featured offensive players on their teams.
So, barring a major injury, they should easily be top-10 fantasy backs and are viable RB1 candidates.
Jackson Prediction: 1,359 yards, 11 TD, 64 rec, 525 yards, 2 TD
Gore Prediction: 1,288 yards, nine TD, 49 rec, 358 yards, 2 TD
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football
Tags: aaron rodgers, adrian peterson, antonio gates, arizona cardinals, atlanta falcons, brett favre, Carolina Panthers, Clinton Portis, dallas cowboys, drew brees, Fantasy Draft, Fantasy Football, frank gore, green bay packers, indianapolis colts, Jason Witten, kurt warner, LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Minnesota Vikings, new england patriots, New Orleans Saints, peyton manning, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, san diego chargers, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Steve Smith, Steven Jackson, tom brady, washington redskins, Wes Welker
Fantasy Football: Top 5 Rookies

There won’t be a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco this year.
Mark Sanchez could see his team get the playoffs, but it will undoubtedly not be because he throws for 3,000 yards and 20+ touchdowns.
There’s not going to be an Adrian Peterson, or a slew of Chris Johnson’s, Steve Slaton’s, and Matt Forte’s.
Realistically, there are only two rookie running backs worth drafting in the top five rounds.
That might even be a reach.
Wide Receivers are no different.
There are a few with a solid chance at starting, and a few more with duties in the slot almost guaranteed.
But superstars? Not even Michael Crabtree.
If you must take a chance, or are investing for a dynasty or keeper league, here’s the top five guys that could pan out, just as you’d hoped.
Honorable Mentions: Donald Brown, Shonne Green, LeSean McCoy, Kenny Britt, Percy Harvin
5.Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Regardless of what some biased scouts said about him, the guy can flat-out play.
He has the hands, smarts, and body control of a dominant NFL wide receiver, and that’s exactly what he’ll be-some day.
Crabtree is still behind Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan, and probably even Jason Hill.
Due to missed practices and the depth ahead of him, Crabtree is in danger of starting his rookie year as the fourth option.
He’s still been going high (eighth) round, so you may have to fight for him.
But I suggest you let someone else take that chance.
4. Brian Robiskie, WR, Cleveland Browns
If there’s any receiver who is a shoe-in to start, it’s Robiskie.
He has exceptional hands and body control, and reportedly runs routes and handles coverage like a veteran.
He may not have blazing speed, but Robiskie is vastly underrated, and projects to snag the number two spot before the season starts.
Robiskie would make for a nice steal in rounds 8 to 10.
3. Knownshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
He could very well end up being the best player on this list (this year, and beyond), but his offensive system and depth at his position really don’t suggest so.
Head Coach Josh McDaniels runs 3-4 backs at all times, and prefers the pass over the run. If Kyle Orton does well, they’ll stick to that plan, which could have Moreno falling short of 1,000 yards, despite being “the starter.”
2. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
There’s simply too much talent ahead of him for him to start right away.
Kevin Curtis has paid his dues and is still effective, while it’s unrealistic to think the electric DeSean Jackson will take a back seat to the rookie.
Maclin’s talent is off the charts, though, with excellent size, speed, and hands.
He won’t start the season as Philly’s go-to receiver, but he’s likely to send Curtis to slot duties, eventually.
1. Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Don’t buy the hype.
Tim Hightower is a failed experiment, and Arizona spent a first rounder on Wells for a good reason: to start him.
He may be eased into the role, but there’s no reason to have him sit behind the ineffective Hightower.
Hightower has a slight advantage in the passing game, but expecting that to keep Wells off the field is simply laughable.
The Cardinals aim to have a more balanced attack, and if Wells can help make that successful, he could post the best numbers of all the rookies.
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Saturday, July 18, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: adrian peterson, arizona cardinals, atlanta falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Robiskie, chicago bears, Chris Wells, cleveland browns, denver broncos, Donald Brown, houston texans, indianapolis colts, Jeremy Maclin, joe flacco, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, mark sanchez, Matt Forte, matt ryan, Michael Crabtree, Minnesota Vikings, new york jets, Percy Harvin, philadelphia eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Shonne Green, steve slaton, tennessee titans
Maurice Jones-Drew: Finally By Himself

Whether you’re a Jacksonville fan or an eager fantasy owner anticipating your first round move for your draft, Maurice Jones-Drew and his immediate future are in your sights.
At least, it should be.
Considering all the amazing things he’s done in his short career, all while splitting carries with the Jaguar legend Fred Taylor, it’s almost jaw-dropping.
Just look at his first year in the league. He paired with Taylor to form one of the league’s best rush attacks, as he fell less than 60 yards short of 1,000 rushing yards, and also dropped in 13 rushing touchdowns.
Not bad for a rookie.
Oh, and then there was that bone-crunching block he delivered on the huge Shawne Merriman. You know, this hit.
Needless to say, MJD launched himself into the NFL as a star. He was easily a household name in Florida, while putting up good numbers and enough highlight reel plays, that he was probably already well known throughout the states.
This just in: Jones-Drew is good; really good. And in 2009, he’ll have the backfield all to himself.
Good-bye Fred Taylor. Hello rushing title?
The truth is, last season, despite seeing MJD cross the goal line 12 times, the Jacksonville ground game suffered.
The offensive line was terrible with constantly nicked up blockers, as several starters were lost for a slew of games, and some for the season.
Despite shady blocking for both the rush and pass, MJD put up over 800 rush yards, the previously mentioned 12 scores, and a respectable 4.0 yards per carry.
The line has been restored—on paper, at least.
David Garrard should be more comfortable, both with his new receivers (Torry Holt, and two rookies) and his growing connection with tight end, Mercedes Lewis.
The best part, though, is that the leash is being taken off, and the real MJD will finally be released.
For the past three years, the Jaguars have had too much depth at running back (didn’t know that existed), and Jones-Drew was being held back.
And in a big way, we all were being held back from greatness.
This is Jones-Drew’s time, both as a fantasy weapon for your team, and as an icon for the league.
He has the strength and drive to run inside. If he can blow up a guy like Merriman on that play at the goal line, he can handle just about anyone inside.
He has the speed, quickness, and overall athleticism needed to succeed in the NFL, and is regarded as one of the top running backs in terms of physical shape.
He is a specimen worth taking notes on.
But these are things you already know. All you need to do is hit up NFL.com, rotoworld.com, or Yahoo.com to find MJD’s stats.
Just read interviews with his teammates to hear how confident they are in his abilities as the feature back. Even ask the departed Fred Taylor.
There isn’t a general “feeling” that this guy is as good as advertised. It’s common knowledge.
So, the next time someone balks at you selecting him third on a long list of deserving running backs, don’t feel so bad.
The next time someone gives you a hard time for ranking him over everyone else but Adrian Peterson, just laugh it off.
Because even if the numbers don’t prove your point, 2009 will.
MJD is just too good to not become one of the elite running backs this season. And mostly, it’s because he already is one.
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: david garrard, fred taylor, jacksonville jaguars, maurice jones-drew, mercedes lewis, shawne merriman, torry holt
2009 NFC Quarterback Preview

Tony Romo lost his most talented weapon (Terrell Owens) this off-season, and now only has Roy Williams as a reliable receiver target.
However, the word in Dallas is that Owens being gone will lift any distractions from the team, and will have the offense performing more fluidly and in turn, will be more effective.
Maybe, and maybe not.
Read on to see who wins the quarterback position battles, who is falling, and who is on the rise, in a team-by-team glance:
Eli Manning-New York Giants
Manning has been overrated ever since winning the Super Bowl, and now he doesn’t have an elite receiver to rely on anymore.
Still, the Giants drafted two fantastic receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden, and the other young talent they have looks to be better than advertised.
While many are down on the Giants offense, I’m making an early guarantee: This offense will soar.
Verdict: May end the season with the elite
Proj: 3,700 yards, 28 TD, 16 INT
Donovan McNabb-Philadelphia Eagles
Just the fact that McNabb stayed healthy last season gives me optimism for him and the Eagles in 2009.
If he can stay on the field, his new offensive weapons should aid him in getting back to prime form.
McNabb put up solid numbers last season, but with a healthy offense, he could approach his 2004 numbers.
Verdict: Three good receivers means only good things
Proj: 3,885 yards, 27 TD, 15 INT
Jason Campbell-Washington Redskins
Against my better judgment, I have to go into 2009 believing the Redskins are fully confident in Campbell.
If they’re not, they aren’t really preparing themselves with a trusted insurance policy.
Regardless, Campbell still has a good arm and shows poise in the pocket. If his young receivers can step up, there could be some modest progress.
Verdict: Still not a great FF option
Proj: 3,334 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT
Tony Romo-Dallas Cowboys
Romo won’t be able to throw it down the field as confidently, but he still has Jason Witten and a solid running back backing him.
The question isn’t if Roy Williams can show up. It’s more about the development of Miles Austin.
Verdict: A balanced offense keeps Romo in the top 10
Proj: 3,698 yards, 31 TD, 16 INT
Aaron Rodgers-Green Bay Packers
The problem in Green Bay is still their defense, and even if it gets better, it still won’t be great.
Rodgers stats will only increase, because he’ll have another season of having to keep Green Bay in high-scoring affairs.
Verdict: Top 10 pick
Proj: 3,966 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT
Jay Cutler-Chicago Bears
Cutler should be able to make something out of Hester, and will discover Greg Olsen to be a nice, speedy target at tight end.
The offensive weapons aren’t sexy, but with time, they definitely could be.
Matt Forte and the rest of the ground game will be Cutler’s new best friend.
Verdict: Cutler shocks some people and keeps 2008 form
Proj: 4,229 yards, 29 TD, 16 INT
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
I speculated about it myself, and have now begun to hear rumors about Stafford starting “earlier than thought”.
I don’t have much faith in a severely regressed Culpepper, and also don’t feel the Lions have much to lose by throwing their rookie into the fire.
Verdict: That doesn’t mean he should be on your team, though.
Proj: 2,470 yards, 14 Td, 16 INT
Brett Favre-Minnesota Vikings
If Brett Favre does in fact stay retired, then I feel Brad Childress has had enough of Tarvaris Jackson, and we’ll see more of Sage Rosenfels, the “Human Helicopter”.
But after he finally spoke up, I believe Favre will be wearing purple come September.
Favre still has a gun (prodiving it doesn’t fall off), and he’s backed by the best running back in the league. He and the Vikings will be just fine.
Verdict: Serviceable
Proj: 3,639 yards, 24 TD, 16 INT
Jake Delhomme-Carolina Panthers
Despite his five-interception game against the Cardinals in the playoffs, Delhomme is still Jon Fox’s guy, or at least until we’re told otherwise.
The Panthers still have one of the NFL’s best receivers, Steve Smith, at his disposal, along with a great running back tandem to ease the pressure.
Verdict: As usual, he’ll do just fine
Proj: 3,779 yards, 24 TD, 14 INT
Matt Ryan-Atlanta Falcons
Forget about the strides he made, or the excellent chemistry he established with his receivers.
He and the rest of that ridiculous offense are entering year two of being comfortable, and now they have an elite tight end in Tony Gonzalez.
Verdict: Grab Ryan when you can
Proj: 3,591 yards, 25 TD, 13 INT
Byron Leftwich-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leftwitch easily beats on Josh Johnson and rookie Josh Freeman, but will probably have to work fairly hard to fend off the pesky veteran, Luke McCown.
In the end, though, Leftwitch has the best amount of experience and the best talent to lead this team, and could form a special connections with Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow.
Verdict: You can get him late-at doing so is advised
Proj: 2,677 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT
Drew Brees-New Orleans Saints
Is it really possibly for this guy to throw for over 5,000 yards in back-to-back season? Possible—yes. But it won’t happen. That’s just too insane.
Still, Sean Payton has tons of tricks up his sleeves, and Brees has way too much talent around him to drop off too much.
Verdict: Top five quarterback
Proj: 4,791 yards, 32 TD, 16 INT
Kurt Warner-Arizona Cardinals
Knock him for being old all you want, but I see Warner finishing 2009 healthy, and relatively still on top of his game.
With or without Anquan Boldin, this is a scary-good offense, and the addition of Ohio State’s Chris Wells only makes it tougher and nastier.
Verdict: Like Brees, a top five guy
Proj: 4,211 yards, 31 TD, 15 INT
Shaun Hill-San Francisco 49ers
If Mike Singletary wants to win, he’ll go with Hill. After all, all Hill does is lead an efficient offense and win games.
Hill won’t deliver big numbers, even if the Niner’s are winning, but he will still be the guy slinging passes for them in 2009.
Verdict: Stop-gap
Proj: 3,246 yards, 17 Td, 12 INT
Marc Bulger-St.Louis Rams
As a lover of football and good offensive production, I pray that the rumors of St. Louis being interested in Michael Vick are true.
Bulger has a lot to prove to have me forget about his last two seasons. His offense has been crumbling around him since 2007, but he still hasn’t looked very sharp, even when they’ve won games.
Verdict: Stay away until things get better
Proj: 2,798 yards, 15 TD, 15 INT
Matt Hasselbeck-Seattle Seahawks
Two things went horribly wrong for Seattle and Hasselbeck last season.
First, their running game never took off, and then all their receivers landed on IR.
Oh, and then Hasselbeck broke his back.
With Hasselbeck and his receiving corps back to full healthy, things are already looking up. The only question is, what will they be getting from their rush attack?
Verdict: Hasselbeck returns to near 2007 form.
Proj: 3,476 yards, 22 TD, 15 INT
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Thursday, June 18, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football
Tags: aaron rodgers, brett favre, donovan mcnabb, drew brees, eli manning, jake delhomme, jason campbell, jay cutler, kurt warner, marc bulger, matt hasselbeck, matt ryan, NFC, tony romor
Fantasy Football: Ten Guys to Snag in the Late Rounds

Worth the risk?
The top ten picks of a Fantasy Football draft is fairly self-explanatory, no matter the format or scoring settings.
It’s simply, really. If you have a league the has two quarterbacks starting, getting Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady with your top pick isn’t a bad move.
If your league has three running backs starting, you would be doing yourself a favor to get the best three running backs available—and so on and so forth.
But what few people realize, is that many fantasy football championships are won in the later rounds, when owners take fliers on rookies, players with legal troubles, or guys without a team.
Here are 13 players, in no particular order, that deserve a shot to prove to you that they’re still fantasy relevant.
Plaxico Burress, WR, Free Agent
Rumors in New York (Jets) have cooled a bit, but don’t buy it. Burress will see his court issues simmer down for the 2009 season, likely allowing him to continue his playing career.
After all, how is a man to pay for all those lawyers if he can’t earn a paycheck?
Burress may still wind up with some sort of suspension, but either way, is worth taking in the later rounds of your draft, simply because he’s still a candidate for 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns if he plays.
You’re not really going to draft a demoted Isaac Bruce before Burress, are you?
Matt Jones, WR, Free Agent
Jones won’t be facing any suspensions from the league, and the serious part of his legal issues is pretty much over with.
All Jones really has to worry about now is finding a starting spot on a team.
There are plenty of team (Jets, Giants, Cowboys, and Bears, just to name a few) that could use a 6’6″ receiver with good hands and great speed.
Jones probably hasn’t signed yet for two reasons: He doesn’t want to go to the Organized Team Activities, and a few teams may be a bit cautious about his recent problems.
Don’t worry. He’ll find a team and he’ll continue his progression into the better half of the league’s receivers. If the guy could put up solid numbers in Jacksonville, just imagine what he can do if Jay Cutler is throwing him the ball.
Edgerrin James, RB, Free Agent
James may be getting up there in age, but he showed he can still grind it out in last year’s playoff run with Arizona.
He’s lost some speed, but he’s a tough runner who is useful out of the backfield as a receiver, and is solid at picking up blitzes.
While he’s unlikely to find a starting job, he could be very useful as a change of pace back, with several teams in the league lacking veteran experience or overall depth at the position.
Brett Favre, QB, Free Agent
After Favre appeared on HBO’s Joe Buck Live and answered the tough questions, it appears imminent that he will sign with the Vikings.
Still, nothing is certain until he’s signed and in camp, so you can probably still get him in the late rounds of your draft.
Maybe people either still don’t believe he’s coming back, or don’t feel he offers anything as a fantasy quarterback.
I’m here to tell you that it’s foolish to buy into that line of thinking. Favre has all the supporting cast in the world to put up his 2007 numbers again, although with less yards.
Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will pick up the slack so Favre won’t wear out his arm again, while Bernard Berrian will give Favre the big-play threat he craves.
The Vike’s solid offensive line should be able to protect Favre while all this goes on, and numbers like 3,500 yards, 25 TD, and 15 INT are extremely possible in an offense he knows better than anybody.
Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots
No, he’s not guaranteed the starting job, and yes, he was hurt for most of last season. In fact, even when he was playing, he was ineffective and didn’t look like he did in 2007.
However, regardless of what you may have heard, he’s definitely in Bill Belichick’s plans, and based on the success of the running back by committee in New England last season, he’s still a better pick-up than, say, Noah Herron.
It obviously depends on how many teams are in your league, but if Maroney ever does grab hold of the starting job again, he could be a fantastic steal by you.
Peyton Hillis, RB/FB, Denver Broncos
After putting up over 340 yards and five touchdowns as the Broncos’ interim starting running back lat least season, Hillis figures to get some kind of touches in Josh McDaniels new offense.
Hillis is a versatile offensive threat that can run, block, and catch at an extremely high level, and should be used in a variety of packages.
Despite the likelihood he will be deployed a good amount, he’s lasting on boards until the very end of drafts. Make sure that he doesn’t.
Chris Henry, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
With a healthy Carson Palmer back and a new gung-ho attitude from teammate Chad Ochocinco (I still hate saying that), Henry could emerge as the explosive third option he was just three seasons ago.
Injuries to himself and his quarterback, as well as the usual off-field issues have been holding Henry back, but he could be primed for a big season if everything in Cincy works out as well as Carson Palmer thinks it will.
When healthy and out of trouble, Henry is a threat for 6-9 scores, as well as 350-600 yards. He shouldn’t be without a fantasy owner when your draft is through.
Brian Leonard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Let’s keep things relative, and address the Bengals ground game, too.
We all know Cedric Benson had an impressive three-game stretch to end the season last year, but we’re fooling ourselves if we think three good games can erase the previous three seasons of horrid play.
Benson is no sure thing, which is why the Bengals brought in Leonard from St. Louis.
Leonard will be used as a blocker and a third-down/short yardage back initially, but if Benson struggles, we could see him taking on a more prominent role.
Leonard is a very useful weapon as a receiver out of the backfield, as well, and Marvin Lewis will look for several different ways to get him on the field.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets vs. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
These guys are at a tie for now, simply because neither has been guaranteed the starting gig.
I like Stafford’s potential for this season better based on Calvin Johnson, while Sanchez has a better moxie to him, and probably has a better running game and overall team surrounding him.
Neither are Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan clones, and both are in worse situations than last year’s impressive rookies were. However, there is still some fantasy value there, and if they wind up starting, they could become useful in deeper leagues.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns
Jamal Lewis is over 30 and clearly not as quick or fast as he used to be (was he ever?).
Harrison has been offering Cleveland a special change-of-pace style for a couple years now, and should finally get his chance to prove his worth.
He won’t take over the starting job before the season starts, but by the end of the season, I’d be shocked if they weren’t at least splitting carries.
The Wild Card
Joey Galloway, WR, New England Patriots
Galloway is definitely up there in age for a receiver, but he can still burn rubber and get behind the secondary.
Bill Belichick’s offense will allow him to have the field all to himself with most of the attention focused on containing Randy Moss and Wes Welker.
Think back when Donte Stallworth was the third option on the 2007 New England team. Galloway could easily put up numbers in the realm of 50 rec, 750 yards, and 6 TD.
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football
Tags: brett favre, brian leonard, chris henry, edgerrin james, jerome harrison, joey galloway, laurence maroney, mark sanchez, matt jones, matthew stafford, peyton hillis, plaxico burress
Early 2009 Fantasy Football Preview: AFC Quarterbacks

Knee injury or not, Brady is still the man.
It’s the first day of June, which means all of those premature NFL power rankings and fantasy football rankings are no longer, well, quite as premature.
While everyone (including myself) is discussing LeBron James and his handshake phobia, the Magic and the Lakers, or Bruno’s fall into Eminem’s lap, I’ve decided to take that free fall dive into the loving arms of fantasy football.
And yes, the fantasy realm loves me back.
However, let’s pace ourselves. After all, it is in fact the first month of summer (first day, no less), and we don’t want to generate pre-football heart attacks.
I mean, Brett Favre hasn’t even made up his mind yet, so why should the rest of us be getting antsy?
Regardless, here is a team-by-team look at all 32 starting quarterbacks, their weapons, offenses, and how they may destroy or enhance your team.
Still worried about Favre’s final decision, camp battles, or injuries? I’ll do my best to fill you in, allowing you an early look at which quarterbacks may be the best bets, which could be potential sleepers, and which ones you should stay away from.
Tom Brady—New England Patriots
Matt Cassel is in Kansas City, and Brady is back in camp, meaning two things.
You have nothing to worry about, and you have nothing to worry about.
Brady has looked sharp in limited practice, and still has the same awesome weapons he had in 2007 during his 50-touchdown season. This list isn’t a ranking, but if it were, I’d have Brady at the top.
Verdict: If you can get him in the second round, you’re already winning.
Proj: 4,090 yards, 35 TD, 13 INT
Mark Sanchez—New York Jets
Don’t buy the Kellen Clemens hype (not that there actually is any).
For better or worse, Sanchez will begin the new Joe Namath era.
It won’t be as sexy or productive as either of Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco’s seasons last year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jets reached the playoffs.
Verdict: Not yet an option for FF
Proj: 2,400 yards, 16 TD, 17 INT
Trent Edwards—Buffalo Bills
I like the addition of Owens, but not the loss of Marshawn Lynch to start the season.
Edwards isn’t as bad as people think, and now he has a sound offense around him. He’s a borderline top-15 quarterback, and depending on how he looks in pre-season, could crack that barrier quite easily.
Verdict: Sleeper
Proj: 3,555 yards, 26 TD, 14 INT
Chad Pennington—Miami Dolphins
This is probably Pennington’s last hurrah with Miami, and something tells me the exciting juice that this offense had last season has all but dried up.
Pennington still doesn’t have enticing options, and he’s got two quarterbacks breathing down his neck.
He’ll be serviceable to start the season, but you won’t claim your league’s championship if he’s your starter.
Verdict: He’s a stop-gap
Proj: 3,100 yards, 17 TD, 14 INT
Ben Roethlisberger—Pittsburgh Steelers
If he endures a Super Bowl hang-over, we could see some bad numbers.
Because, as we’ve learned, the less Big Ben throws, the better he is.
He’s still a fantasy quarterback with solid weapons around him, so don’t be afraid to snatch him up.
Verdict: Serviceable
Proj: 3,470 yards, 23 TD, 18 INT
Brady Quinn—Cleveland Browns
Personally, I think Derek Anderson has the better arm and size, but Braylon Edwards favors Quinn, and the organization is more likely to run with the young, more familiar face.
Quinn is actually a good, young quarterback, and I’m not sure why Eric Mangini isn’t higher on him.
Regardless, aside from Braylon “Mr. Drop” Edwards, Quinn has no weapons.
Verdict: Things could get ugly
Proj: 2,899 yards, 20 TD, 20 INT
Carson Palmer—Cincinnati Bengals
He was awful last season, going 0-4 before bowing out with an arm injury.
However, his weapons are still potentially elite, and if he can return to form, could easily put up numbers that will have you kicking yourself for passing him up in the fourth round.
Verdict: Possibly ends the season as a top-5 passer
Proj: 3,884 yards, 27 TD, 17 INT
Joe Flacco—Baltimore Ravens
Flacco proved to be a capable game-manager, and has reportedly looked good over the offseason.
However, the Ravens are likely to base their offense around the run, and Flacco doesn’t have superstar options surrounding him.
Verdict: See Chad Pennington
Proj: 3,335 yards, 18 TD, 16 INT
Vince Young—Tennessee Titans
Call me crazy, but I don’t see Kerry Collins finishing the first half of the season as the starter.
He’s up there in age, which makes a regression or an injury extremely likely, and if things aren’t going well, he’ll be benched rather quickly.
Young may not have a cloudless head on his shoulders, but he still can make things happen with his feet.
Verdict: Young might surprise some people
Proj: 2,467 yards, 15 TD, 13 INT, 430 r yards, 4 TD
Peyton Manning—Indianapolis Colts
Manning loses Marvin Harrison, Tony Dungy, and two other important assistant coaches.
That doesn’t mean he’ll suddenly lose his touch, but there’s only so much Anthony Gonzales and Austin Collie can make up for.
Verdict: Draft him below Tom Brady, for sure this time
Proj: 4,300 yards, 33 TD, 19 INT
David Garrard—Jacksonville Jaguars
He lost Matt Jones, but gained Torry Holt.
Something tells me Garrard won’t really notice.
Jacksonville’s offense is all about grinding it out, but they were forced to put the ball in the air more last year because of an atrocious offensive line.
Verdict: A better line means Garrard is good again
Proj: 3,090 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 260 r yards, 3 TD
Matt Schaub—Houston Texans
Schaub has too many weapons to fail. The only problem is, he needs to stay on the field.
If he can play even 13 games, he’ll put up huge numbers, while leaving everyone guessing, yet again, what he’d do if he played a full season.
Still, with Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Steve Slaton, and Owen Daniels, the future looks good for Schaub.
Verdict: He can lead your team to a title
Proj: 3,800 yards, 25 TD, 16 INT
Philip Rivers—San Diego Chargers
If Rivers’ defense can back him up, unlike in 2008, he could easily approach last year’s numbers, and possibly even surpass them.
With a healthy Antonio Gates and LT, Rivers is more confident than ever.
Verdict: Draft him like he’s Tom Brady
Proj: 4,270 yards, 30 TD, 16 INT
Jeff Garcia—Oakland Raiders
I just don’t see the JaMarcus Russell experiment lasting more than three or four losses in 2009, and wouldn’t be shocked to see him benched in the pre-season.
As long as Garcia wins a few games, Al Davis will let him start. After all, he brought him in for a reason.
Verdict: Nobody in Oakland is worth your while
Proj: 2,300 yards, 15 TD, 9 INT
Matt Cassel—Kansas City Chiefs
Cassel is in a new place with a huge drop-off as far as offensive weapons. He still has good experience from last season, combined with his solid arm and good athleticism.
However, we’ll all be left wondering what could have been, had Tony Gonzalez not been traded to Atlanta.
Verdict: Stay away in year one
Proj: 3,700 yards, 22 TD, 23 INT
Kyle Orton—Denver Broncos
Orton was putting together a solid season in Chicago before hurting his ankle. Once he came back, he played admirably through injury, and didn’t have the best options out there.
In Denver, he’ll have a friendlier offensive line and system, as well as excellent receiving options.
Verdict: Orton could make the leap to elite
Proj: 3,600 yards, 24 TD, 16 INT
The NFC Edition will be made available, depending on the reads/comments for this article. Thanks for reading, and for those basketball enthusiasts, check out my NBA blog: www.robertsroundballreport.com
Posted by Kevin Roberts Date: Monday, June 1, 2009
Categories: Fantasy Football
Tags: andre johnson, anthony gonzalez, antonio gates, austin collie, ben roethlisberger, brady quinn, braylon edwards, brett favre, bruno, buffalo bills, carson palmer, chad pennington, cincinnati bengals, cleveland browns, david garrard, denver broncos, derek anderson, eminem, eric mangini, houston texans, indianapolis colts, jacksonville jaguars, jamarcus russell, jeff garcia, joe flacco, kansas city chiefs, kellen clemens, kerry collins, kevin walter, kyle orton, l.a. lakers, lebron james, mark sanchez, marshawn lynch, marvin harrison, matt cassel, matt jones, matt ryan, matt schaub, miami dolphins, new england patriots, new york jets, oakland raiders, orlando magic, owen daniels, peyton manning, philip rivers, pittsburgh steelers, san diego chargers, steve slaton, tennessee titans, terrell owens, tom brady, tony dungy, tony gonzalez, torry holt, trent edwards, vince young
