Archive for May, 2009

Realistic Expectations For The 2009 Green Bay Packers

Rodgers can't do it on his own.

Much like last season, Green Bay’s focus, whether you like it or not, might be on Brett Favre.

With Favre’s arrival in Minnesota seeming more likely by the day, Green Bay might have to game plan for their former star quarterback. So much for avoiding the topic.

Regardless, there are way too many other issues Green Bay needs to address and hammer out. The Packers need to focus on what is in their control, rather than dwell on hypotheticals.

So, without further “Brett Favre Saga-Haste”, let’s get back on track:

Addressing the 3-4

As we saw last season, Aaron Rodgers is not the problem in Green Bay. True, he failed to lead any dramatic comebacks as his former legendary teammate had, but it was more on his suspect defense than him.

In fact, Rodgers led comebacks in several games late in the fourth quarter, only to see his defense give up a score with two minutes left. That’s not the kind of defense a quarterback can depend on.

But to expect it to instantly get better during a transition to a 3-4 scheme—well, that’s insane.

If anything, we may see a bit of a drop-off.

Do they have the right players in the right spots? It’s close, but they have too many guys who either don’t fit perfectly, or they’re holdovers from other positions that they couldn’t win.

For example, Brandon Chillar, Desmond Bishop, Brady Poppinga, and rookie Clay Matthews will all be battling for the outside linebacker spot opposite of Aaron Kampman.

Is this good or bad news? Well, considering none of them are completely ideal for the position, do the math for yourself.

Chillar is best-suited for the middle (as is Bishop), while Poppinga and Matthews are perfect on the outside, but not necessarily for this type of scheme.

Both linebackers are quick and nasty hitters, but Poppinga has regressed in his block-shedding and didn’t register a single sack last season.

Matthews, on the other hand, has all the ability and pedigree a coach could ask for, but he is extremely raw and is still just a rookie.

Even if new defensive coordinator Dom Capers can figure the linebacker position out, he still has issues on the line.

Cullen Jenkins, if healthy, is a great defensive end for the new 3-4, but with Kampman switching to linebacker, there are no true contenders to fill in at the other end spot.

Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell, and even Ryan Pickett have been mentioned as possible ends in this scheme, but none of them are sexy or leave you feeling good about this line.

Jolly is big and strong, but doesn’t have good speed or burst. The 3-4 scheme doesn’t demand elite pass-rushers, but it does ask for some pressure. Jolly might not be able to give them that.

As for Harrell, his progress report will forever be incomplete, as he’s yet to stay healthy and/or make any kind of an impact.

Pickett is still up in the air, as it hasn’t been determined if he’ll switch to end to allow rookie B.J. Raji take over in the middle or if Raji will have to wait.

Needless to say, there are a ton of questions, and we’ve only covered linebacker and the defensive line.

Factor in two cornerbacks who are in their mid-30s, and you’re one injured cornerback away from a crippled defense.

Can the Offense Carry This Team?

They couldn’t do it last season, but that was to be expected. Despite playing extremely well, you couldn’t reasonably expect Rodgers to lead the Packers to the playoffs in his first season.

However, with a year under his belt, we could see better execution, more big plays, and even some heroic late-game drives for Rodgers and this offense.

The success of this Packers team will undoubtedly hang on Rodgers, simply because it’s impossible to put too much stock in a defense we know almost nothing about.

The position battles are still fresh, all the players are still learning, and once we finally do know the starting lineup, there will be a time period needed for continuity to be established.

Rodgers threw 28 touchdowns and for more than 4,000 yards on a 6-10 team last season, showing that he was obviously not the problem.

However, this year, he has to be the solution, and I believe he can do it. Does that mean a division title, though? Probably not.

Unless this new defense can turn things around in one year, they’ll struggle enough that Rodgers will have to play at least as good as last year to keep their heads above water.

A 9-7 finish is very realistic and even probable, while a 10-6 finish is reachable if their defense even remotely shows up.

Hey Washington, Why Not Colt Brennan?

Could the Redskins answer be sitting on their bench?

First, it was Jason Campbell for Jay Cutler. Maybe.

That didn’t work.

Then it was Campbell involved in draft-day talks. Did the Redskins want a different quarterback, an upgrade, some competition?

Regardless of what you took out of it, it’s clear the Redskins (namely Daniel Snyder) don’t have too much confidence in their starting quarterback.

After making solid strides in his first eight starts (going 6-2) in 2008, Campbell and the rest of the offense took a dive off the deep end…and never returned.

Washington sputtered the rest of the way, going 2-6, finishing 8-8, and missing the playoffs. Very New York Jets-Favre-like.

And just when we were beginning to believe.

However, after trade talk rumor after trade talk rumor, here we are, back with Campbell as the opening day starter.

The thing that is the most interesting is how the Redskins appear so sure they’re starting with the best player at the quarterback position.

After his solid finish to the 2007 season and leading the Redskins into the playoffs, it’s arguable that Todd Collins, even at 38, could be a better option.

Not exactly an addition toward the future, but Collins is clearly a better game-manager and decision-maker.

But even if it would be the better play, it’d still be foolish. There’s no point in stunting a potentially good player’s growth, unless you have a young guy you can run with.

But wait, don’t they already have another good, young quarterback on their roster?

Depending on your definition of good, quarterback, and roster, you may answer yes.

Yes, folks, I’m launching the idea that Colt Brennan, Hawaii alum and all, can be, and should be the starting quarterback for the Washington Redskins.

It makes sense on so many levels.

Snyder and the Skins’ front office have already begun to realize they messed up with Campbell. As solid as he has looked in some stretches, he has looked obscenely average in others.

He’s a polished Jamarcus Russell. Wow, I can already hear the applause.

Oh, and here comes the lifetime aware for “Most Average Athlete.” But instead of shtick, mediocrity, or an old dude flailing lame-duck passes into triple coverage, we could get the Hawaiian player with a bad attitude.

Let’s face it, from the media, to your friends, to your own disillusioned perception of what quarterbacking is, you developed a finely tuned hatred for Colt Brennan.

He’s the guy you wish had killed dogs, instead of Michael Vick, because that way the hatred you already have for him would be met with something that actually deserves it.

No, the truth is, Brennan is actually pretty good. He was flat-out dominant at Hawaii, but was restricted on an NFL-scouting basis, due to his lack of elite competition and the type of offense he played in.

The there’s the “questionable character,” and all that mumbo-gumbo.

Are they relevant? Yes, but not to the degree where an NFL front office will continue to keep him off the field just to save face.

It’s time to come to a blinding realization. I know you (we) have been waiting for it for some time now, and we had hoped it would have come in a better form, but alas, this will have to do.

For now, we’ll have to do with the NFL and a specific team/front office to allow us to reach our temporary state of Zen.

The Redskins, Daniel Snyder, and the rest of the collective NFL world will have to swallow their pride and admit, once and for all, that Jason Campbell very well could be a bust.

Or, he just is a bust.

He was drafted the same year Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith were, and he’s nowhere near Rodgers’ level, while being only another bad season away from Smith’s.

Washington is coming to a crossing of roads, and they need to jump on Brennan’s bus or ride the flat-tired Campbell-train.

While it’s likely to be a bumpy ride, either way, at least with Brennan, the ride could be a little more exciting.

Michael Vick: 10 Possible Destinations

Although this article, as many are, is based on hypotheticals, let’s not indulge ourselves into any more than are necessary. For example, start now by ridding yourself of what “remorse” means, or what Commissioner Roger Goodell thinks it means.

When predicting the future of the league, or it’s players, one cannot get themselves caught up in legal drama, possible suspensions, or trivial things like contracts, money, and position status.

No, especially not when that player is a convicted dog-killer, as well as one of the most hated athletes in the nation.

While Vick likely still has the talent to dazzle us all and see himself littered across ESPN every Sunday, the question is, do we care to see it?

If you’re a true football fan, the answer is a resounding, yes.

Vick will be 29 when the season begins, will be playing like a 27-year old, and still has a lot to show us. But if Goodell let’s him play, will there actually be any takers?

Uh, yeah.

It’s time for us to think outside the box, America (and all other countries). Did Buffalo pop into our heads as Terrell Owens’ landing spit upon his release? No.

Did we start getting Jets fever when we heard Favre wanted to come back last year? Not likely.

So, as Vick will likely keep his options and mind open, so too, shall you.

Here’s a look at ten teams that would give Vick a serious look, for one reason or another, in no particular order:

1. New England Patriots

Bill Belichick drafted Kent State’s Justin Edelman to use in a new wildcat package, but what if he had Vick as his disposal?

If Vick would be willing to play primarily receiver and running back, the Patriots could grab that extra bit of talent to get them back to where they were in 2007.

Verdict: The Patriots could think about it, but with Brady back, they don’t need Vick to scare the opposition.

2. Miami Dolphins

Miami took Pat White to further advance their offense, but what if Vick could step in and be their primary back-up quarterback, as well as their wildcat signal caller?

Once again, if Vick is open to playing other spots on the field, he shouldn’t have too much of a problem getting a shot somewhere.

Verdict: Bill Parcells probably wouldn’t spend more than five minutes on this conversation. They drafted White for a reason, and they’ll stick with what they’ve got.

3. Cleveland Browns

New coach Eric Mangini isn’t sold on either one of his quarterbacks, so depending on his opinion of Vick, this wouldn’t be too outlandish of a landing spot.

Besides, Mangini has been toying with his own ideas for a wildcat package.

Verdict: With two solid quarterbacks battling for the top spot, Vick would bring unwanted media exposure. Mangini isn’t going to risk a blow-up in his first year.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

If you don’t jump to conclusions, you’d probably stick to the thinking that David Garrard is a pretty good quarterback. However, his and the Jaguars’ awful 2008 would suggest otherwise.

If Jack Del Rio is scared and afraid of losing his job, a desperate signing of Vick wouldn’t be surprising.

Verdict: Can’t rule it out.

5. Oakland Raiders

You can’t predict anything in Raider Nation, and you sure can’t predict what Al Davis will do, or what he is thinking.

He’s marching into 2009 with a shaky quarterback, and a 39-year old veteran behind him.

Seriously, what could it hurt to add Vick?

Verdict: Unless Davis says no, it will forever remain a possibility.

6. Washington Redskins

Like Al Davis, with Daniel Snyder, almost anything is possible. Just look at Albert Haynesworth’s $100 million contract if you need further evidence.

The Redskins haven’t exactly been voicing their confidence in starter, Jason Campbell, this off-season, so Vick could be tempting.

Verdict: If Campbell doesn’t look like the right guy in pre-season, Vick could be targeted.

7. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have three options.

They can ride it out with either of the average guys they have at quarterback, take their chance on Brett Favre’s 39-year old arm, or grab up the dog-killing Vick.

Verdict: If Favre can play, he’s their guy. If not, Vick is a bigger possibility than people think.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s see. It’s Luke McCown, or…?

Yeah, Vick is on the radar.

However, with a new regime in Tampa, it’s actually fairly unlikely they’d take a chance on a guy like Vick. They’re establishing youth and character under Raheem Morris, so landing Vick wouldn’t make much sense.

Verdict: Jon Gruden is gone, and the Bucs are done collecting quarterbacks. At least, we hope.

9. San Francisco 49ers

If you’re satisfied with Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, and Nate Davis, then stop me here.

But I doubt that.

Davis has potential, but he’s likely going to take at least 2-3 years to fully develop both the physical and mental parts of the game.

If Vick could come in and bring a strong arm, leadership, and game-changing ability, why stop him?

Singletary would look like an absolute genius if it worked out.

Verdict: It’d be strange, considering Singletary’s big “character” out-burst on Vernon Davis, but maybe he’s not a dog lover.

10. St. Louis Rams

If the Rams are completely comfortable going into 2009 with Marc Bulger as their starter, they clearly have no intentions of competing at a high level.

It’s arguable that Vick wouldn’t change their playoff fortunes much, but he’d at least bring some excitement and pure talent back to this franchise.

Verdict: The Rams are starting over at almost every other position. What’s the hold-up at quarterback? Plain and simple: Bulger has to go; why not start by adding Vick?

There are a few other teams that could be slight possibilities, while I am completely ruling out Jim Mora Jr. and his Seattle Seahawks.

Vick already ruined his career one time. Mora won’t let him do it again.

All we know is Vick won't be in Atlanta

NFL 2009 Predictions: Who’s Going to the Playoffs?

It’s still early in the off-season, but I’d like to put my stamp on my official preseason playoff predictions.

It seems everyone out there is doing all types of player rankings (as am I) or power rankings, which leaves this writer thinking, “why not me, too?”

The big questions are what teams won’t repeat as playoff contenders, as well as whether or not there will be any huge surprise teams to crack the rotation—such as the Arizona Cardinals from 2008.

It’s a waste of time to predict what team’s will have what records, as injuries, roster changes, and coaching philosophy hasn’t taken it’s full effect, and probably won’t until mid-season.

However, with the draft in the books, the first big wave of free agency done and over with, it’s time to take a breather from the Brett Favre-sage, among other things, and ponder what 12 teams will vie for a title next season.

Spoiler Alert: The Lions aren’t one of them.

AFC

New England Patriots

A healthy Brady means a wild, and crazy “bunch”. The offense was fine without him—but it just wasn’t the same.

With more depth added on defense through the draft, we will start to see somewhat of a rebuilding project, all while this team makes a fun for the Super Bowl.

Verdict: Division Winner

New York Jets

The only huge question mark is the quarterback position. Leave the defensive decisions to the mastermind, Rex Ryan.

If their running game can help out rookie Mark Sanchez (who will be the starter), then they have a real chance to get close to 10-6, and nab a wild-card spot.

Verdict: Wild Card

Buffalo Bills

The new addition of Terrell Owens will do more than the experts think, but the playoffs? That’s a bit of a reach.

Owens’ presence will allow Trent Edwards and Lee Evans to develop faster, and the Bills offense should grow, as a whole. There are too many question marks with their pass rush and overall depth on defense, though.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins weren’t built to go 11-5 last year, but an easy schedule and a scorned quarterback led them to a remarkable season.

They’ll probably regress to somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7, but not without steady improvement from their receivers. 2010 will be their season to strike.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger and co. are too tough and determined to have a Super Bowl-hangover.

With Willie Parker healthy, they’ll have a solid ground game to rely on, once again, which will open things up for rising star, Santonio Holmes.

Verdict: Division Winner

Baltimore Ravens

We should see steady improvement from Joe Flacco in his second season, but then again, that’s what everyone said about Rick Mirer.

I believe in the Flacco buzz, but he doesn’t have elite offensive weapons, and his defense is aging.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are more prepared to win now, than people give them credit for.

They still have solid receivers and a Pro Bowl-type quarterback in Carson Palmer. Clearly their main issues are on defense, but if Cedric Benson can run like he did in the final three games last season, they could push for a wild card.

Verdict: Stuck in Mediocrity

Cleveland Browns

It’s never good when you aren’t even sure who your starting quarterback is. To make matters worse, they have a receiver who drops passes, no tight end, and no true weapons to rely on.

It’ll be a rough first year for Eric Mangini.

Verdict: Bottom of the Barrel

Indianapolis Colts

Eventually this team has to drop-off, right?

With Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, and Marvin Harrison all gone, it’s the perfect time for the Colts to fall away from being contenders.

But they have Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark.

Just those three players are good enough for them to win the division.

Verdict: Division Winner

Houston Texans

If Matt Schaub can stay healthy (that’s a big “if”), then there could be good things coming Houston’s way.

They have elite options at every offensive position, and are backed by a consistently improving defense.

Verdict: Wild Card (Finally)

Tennessee Titans

When you lose Albert Haynesworth, there’s bound to be a drop-off.

Teams will be able to key in on their running game, as Kerry Collins isn’t the most difficult quarterback to game-plan against.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Jacksonville Jaguars

Letting go of Fred Taylor was a bolder move than you’d think. Maurice Jones-Drew can handle the starting gig-that’s not the problem.

But after seeing their offensive line depth (or lack thereof) exposed, they’re now risking the same thing happening to their running back corps.

And as for those receivers; do you really think Torry Holt can rescue them in one season?

Verdict: Cellar

San Diego Chargers

A healthy group of offensive weapons, as well as a revitalized Shawne Merriman, could realistically place this team right back where they left off in 2007.

They’re still one of the most talented teams in the league, so the rest falls on Norv Turner.

Verdict: Division Winner

Denver Broncos

I, unlike many others, actually believe in Kyle Orton. He put up solid numbers last season, despite being hurt and not having many elite weapons.

Now he’s walking in with a good running scheme, as well as Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler as top targets.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Oakland Raiders

I’m not buying that JaMarcus Russell can progress enough to stave off the veteran, Jeff Garcia.

Garcia is old, but he brings accuracy, leadership, and poise. The Raiders will win at least five games if Garcia is starting.

Darren McFadden stepping into the starting role can only help their chances.

Verdict: Not Even Close

Kansas City Chiefs

I’m on the Matt Cassel bandwagon, but not necessarily for 2009. He has new weapons, a new environment, and it will take time to adjust.

Larry Johnson remains a huge question mark, as does this defense.

Can they improve on their league-low 10 sacks? God, I hope so.

Verdict: Dead Last

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles

As long as cancer-stricken defensive coordinator Jim Johnson hangs around, their defense will be right near the top again.

New weapons Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy won’t be starting, but will eventually find ways to make an impact.

Verdict: Division Winner

Dallas Cowboys

If Roy Williams can step-up, we shouldn’t see any drop-off in Tony Romo’s production.

And if Dallas does what everyone knows it needs to in order to win (run the ball), then they have a shot at the division, too.

Verdict: Wild Card

New York Giants

Eli Manning doesn’t have a dependable target-yet. This could make him grow, or make him squirm.

Losing Derrick Ward could hurt a lot if Brandon Jacobs goes down at all again.

Overall, they still have a very good team. However, the NFC East is brutal, and their tough schedule on the outside of it will wear them out.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Washington Redskins

They showed glimpses of true talent and a desire to win, but they’re not there yet.

Unfortunately, that will mean Jim Zorn will be gone, and the franchise will look to move on from Jason Campbell.

Verdict: Bottom of the Barrel

Green Bay Packers

Even if Brett Favre comes back, the Packers still have a very good shot at taking over this division.

It’s going to be a hard fight throughout the season, but their defense should improve enough to help them get to 10-6, which will be good enough to win the North.

Verdict: Division Winner

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler will have to adjust, just like Matt Cassel, and it may be even more difficult, considering his limited receiving options.

That chemistry and development will take time. Their defense will keep them above .500, but there are too many other teams with better core groups.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Minnesota Vikings

I don’t care if they won their division last year. The Packers won it in 2007, but I didn’t see them winning it in 2008, did you?

Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.

The Vikings are solid all across the board, but there’s little-to-no faith in either one of their current signal callers. If Favre jumps aboard, they have a shot at the division.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford will play eventually, but the odds are Culpepper plays the first few games. Once the Lions are 0-5 again, management will have nothing to lose, and they’ll plop the rookie in.

There needs to be a lot of improvement throughout the entire team just to win 2-3 games next season.

Verdict: Cellar

New Orleans Saints

There is a common theme in the NFC South: whatever team finishes last this year, finishes first the next. So far, so food.

The Saints definitely have the offense to match-up with any team, but what about their defense? Common upgrades at each position should have them competing at a high level on both sides of the ball.

Verdict: Division Winner

Atlanta Falcons

While many feel the Falcons will fall in Matt Ryan’s second try, I think they’ll only get better.

With the addition of future Hall of Famer tight end, Tony Gonzalez, as well as improvement from Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, this offense can only get better.

Verdict: Wild Card

Carolina Panthers

It’s back to mediocrity after we saw a taste of what the Panthers can do. The only problem is, their defense is only average, and they have an extremely tough schedule.

Is Julius Pepper staying or going? Consider he’s the glue holding that average defense together, that may be the make-or-break question.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They don’t have a quarterback, and they’re starting over, almost completely.

I like their offense with Derrick Ward, Antonio Bryant, and Kellen Winslow, but that won’t be enough.

Telling Jeff Garcia to take a hike was a mistake.

Verdict: Cellar

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona won’t have any lingering effects from their Super Bowl loss. They know better than that.

They’re aware that they were an average team going into the post-season, so they are already concentrating on simply getting better.

They retained Warner, got rid of Edgerrin James, and now all that’s left is to resolve the Anquan Boldin situation. If they can do that, they have this division. They probably have it, anyways.

Verdict: Division Winner

Seattle Seahawks

This time around, no more tears, Seattle.

(Name the boy-band!)

Matt Hasselbeck should return to form, or at least close to it, and they should actually have some healthy/productive receivers this season.

There are still question marks on their offensive line and with their running game. They can get back to 7-9 or 8-8, but probably won’t compete for the division.

Verdict: Just Miss Out

San Francisco 49ers

Mike Singletary has the right idea. Defense wins championships. Hell, he should know.

However, he’s actually building a solid offense. Now, about that quarterback thing…

Verdict: Stuck in Mediocrity

St. Louis Rams

No, they won’t be this year’s Miami Dolphins.

Marc Bulger may have Chad Pennington’s No. 10, but he just isn’t what he used to be.

For me, it’s as simple as that. If Bulger starts, the Rams lose.

Summary

The AFC representatives for the NFL Playoffs will be:

Patriots

Jets

Steelers

Colts

Texans

Chargers

As for the NFC…

Eagles

Cowboys

Packers

Saints

Falcons

Cardinals

And the Super Bowl?

The Eagles will push past Green Bay and Arizona in the playoffs to meet up with the Patriots, where Randy Moss will finally get that elusive ring.

Can McNabb Lead Another Late Run?